Slide1:

Title

Slide 2:

Main Features

Slide 3:

Options in Exploration & Production

Slide 4:

Exploration & Production

Slide 5:

Types of Uncertainty (1)

Slide 6:

Technical Uncertainty at Appraisal Phase

Slide 7:

Types of Uncertainty (2)

Slide 8:

The Cost Benefit Balance of Waiting

Slide 9:

Economic Analysis and the E&P Phases

Slide 10:

Development Phase

Slide 11:

Equation of Undeveloped Reserve (F)

Slide 12:

"Timing": Interactive Real Options Software

Slide 13:

Undeveloped Reserves x Oil Prices

Slide 14:

Threshold for an Immediate Investment

Slide 15:

The Effect of Cost Uncertainty

Slide 16:

Chart of the Effect of Cost Uncertainty

Slide 17:

Exploratory Phase

Slide 18:

Superficial Evaluation of a Prospect

Slide 19:

Sequential Investment Option

Slide 20:

Prospect Considerating the Simulated Branches

Slide 21:

"Bad" Branches Pruned (1)

Slide 22:

"Bad" Branches Pruned (2)

Slide 23:

Prospect Considering the Active Management Gain

Slide 24:

Active Management Gain

Slide 25:

Binomial Diffusion Process

Slide 26:

Binomial and Risk-Neutral Valuation

Slide 27:

Exploratory Phase with Strategic Interaction (1)

Slide 28:

Exploratory Phase with Strategic Interaction (2)

Slide 29:

Game Theory and the "Drilling Match"

Slide 30:

Payoffs from the Drilling Game

Slide 31:

Game Tree (One Step) from the "Drilling Match"

Slide 32:

Decision Rule: The Game Threshold q*

Slide 33:

Bayesian Method (Conditional Probability)

Slide 34:

Bayesian Method: Prior Distribuition

Slide 35:

Payoff 2 and the Backwards Calculus

Slide 36:

Conclusions (1)

Slide 37:

Conclusions (2)

Slide 38:

Conclusions (3)