Slide1:
Title
Slide 2:
Main Features
Slide 3:
Options in Exploration & Production
Slide 4:
Exploration & Production
Slide 5:
Types of Uncertainty (1)
Slide 6:
Technical Uncertainty at Appraisal Phase
Slide 7:
Types of Uncertainty (2)
Slide 8:
The Cost Benefit Balance of Waiting
Slide 9:
Economic Analysis and the E&P Phases
Slide 10:
Development Phase
Slide 11:
Equation of Undeveloped Reserve (F)
Slide 12:
"Timing": Interactive Real Options Software
Slide 13:
Undeveloped Reserves x Oil Prices
Slide 14:
Threshold for an Immediate Investment
Slide 15:
The Effect of Cost Uncertainty
Slide 16:
Chart of the Effect of Cost Uncertainty
Slide 17:
Exploratory Phase
Slide 18:
Superficial Evaluation of a Prospect
Slide 19:
Sequential Investment Option
Slide 20:
Prospect Considerating the Simulated Branches
Slide 21:
"Bad" Branches Pruned (1)
Slide 22:
"Bad" Branches Pruned (2)
Slide 23:
Prospect Considering the Active Management Gain
Slide 24:
Active Management Gain
Slide 25:
Binomial Diffusion Process
Slide 26:
Binomial and Risk-Neutral Valuation
Slide 27:
Exploratory Phase with Strategic Interaction (1)
Slide 28:
Exploratory Phase with Strategic Interaction (2)
Slide 29:
Game Theory and the "Drilling Match"
Slide 30:
Payoffs from the Drilling Game
Slide 31:
Game Tree (One Step) from the "Drilling Match"
Slide 32:
Decision Rule: The Game Threshold q*
Slide 33:
Bayesian Method (Conditional Probability)
Slide 34:
Bayesian Method: Prior Distribuition
Slide 35:
Payoff 2 and the Backwards Calculus
Slide 36:
Conclusions (1)
Slide 37:
Conclusions (2)
Slide 38:
Conclusions (3)